CAKE at the meeting with Reform Institute, 26.06.2026

CAKE at the meeting with Reform Institute, 26.06.2026

CAKE at the meeting with Reform Institute, 26.06.2026

On 26 June 2026, our expert, Sebastian Lizak, took part in a webinar during which the Institute for Reforms presented its latest report entitled “Overt costs, hidden benefits. The financial balance sheet of Poland’s participation in the EU ETS?”, authored by Dominik Madej and Michał Wojtyło.

In his presentation, our expert outlined how the EU ETS system operates in the context of the planned revision and its potential implications. He highlighted, amongst other things, the tight schedule for the work in mid-July this year. The European Commission is due to present a draft of the amendments; an agreement is planned for the first quarter of 2027, whilst the implementation of the new regulations is scheduled for the turn of 2027 and 2028. He emphasised that key factors for the future supply and prices of allowances will include, amongst other things, the setting of the post-2030 emissions cap (the so-called cap, expressed as a linear reduction factor – LRF), changes to the rules governing the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), and the method of incorporating offset units into the system. He also noted that the European Commission’s actions to date regarding the reform suggest a course correction in climate policy rather than a fundamental change. In the concluding part of his speech, Sebastian Lizak addressed the current situation on the emissions allowance market. He pointed out that EUA prices are currently recovering from the declines recorded at the turn of January and February, rising by around 30 per cent from the local low of mid-March 2026. He also presented CAKE/KOBiZE’s short-term price forecasts, according to which the average price of allowances in the third quarter could be around 80 EUR. He noted, however, that the manner and timing of allowance sales under the European Commission’s new ‘Investment Booster’ instrument would have a key impact on price trends. Dominik Madej, Michał Wojtyło, Paweł Wrobel and Marcin Kowalczyk also took part in the discussion.

Below is a link to the recording of the meeting:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJdJYb9ezMM h

He also presented CAKE/KOBiZE’s short-term price forecasts, according to which the average price of allowances in the third quarter could be around 80 EUR. He noted, however, that the manner and timing of allowance sales under the European Commission’s new ‘Investment Booster’ instrument would have a key impact on price trends.

Dominik Madej, Michał Wojtyło, Paweł Wrobel and Marcin Kowalczyk also took part in the discussion.

Below is a link to the recording of the meeting:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJdJYb9ezMM h