EC JRC – KOBiZE Technical Modelling Workshop in Seville

EC JRC – KOBiZE Technical Modelling Workshop in Seville

EC JRC – KOBiZE Technical Modelling Workshop in Seville

On 26–27 May 2026, a two-day EC JRC – KOBiZE technical workshop took place in Seville, organised by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The meeting brought together experts from JRC modelling teams and CAKE/KOBiZE/IOŚ-PIB and was dedicated to the exchange of experience in modelling climate, energy and transport policy.

The workshop was technical in nature. Discussions focused on the development of modelling tools, data updates, scenario construction, and the practical use of models for assessing the impacts of climate policy, including regulations related to the EU ETS, ETS2, CBAM, CDR technologies, and carbon leakage risk.

From the CAKE/KOBiZE side, the workshop was attended by: Robert Jeszke, Deputy Director of IOŚ-PIB for emissions management; Maciej Pyrka, Head of the Strategy, Analysis and Auctions Team at CAKE/KOBiZE/IOŚ-PIB; and representatives of the Climate and Energy Analysis Centre team at CAKE/KOBiZE: Jakub Boratyński, Igor Tatarewicz, Paweł Kobus, Szymon Wójcik, Wojciech Rabiega, Marek Antosiewicz, Katarzyna Mazanek, Zuzanna Różańska, Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Michał Lewarski and Grzegorz Gmyrek.

Scope of the workshop

The programme included presentations and discussions on both tools developed by CAKE/KOBiZE and models used by JRC in climate and energy policy analyses. Topics included the integration of sectoral and macroeconomic models, the role of updated databases, the impact of low- and zero-emission technologies, and the implications of climate policy beyond emission reductions within the EU.

Topics presented by CAKE/KOBiZE

CAKE/KOBiZE presented the development of national modelling tools and their applications in assessing the impacts of climate, energy and transport policy. Discussions covered models and tools such as d-PLACE, MEESA, EPICA and TR3E, the LIFE ENSPIRE project, CBAM-related analyses, ETS2 scenarios, CDR technologies, and carbon leakage risk in agriculture.

An important reference point in the discussions was the LIFE ENSPIRE project, implemented by CAKE/KOBiZE/IOŚ-PIB. The project focuses on analysing long-term scenarios for the development of European climate policy, including the potential gradual integration of countries neighbouring the European Union into the EU ETS after 2050. LIFE ENSPIRE also examines linkages between trade and climate policy, particularly in the context of the CBAM mechanism, as well as the extension of modelling horizons beyond 2050. In this way, the project is directly aligned with the broader workshop discussion on the future of modelling tools, carbon pricing, and long-term decarbonisation of the economy. In his presentation, Maciej Pyrka presented the LIFE ENSPIRE project in the context of new challenges in EU climate policy, including discussions on the target of a 90% net emissions reduction by 2040. The analytical capacity of CAKE was also presented, including CGE and sectoral models used to assess climate and energy policy scenarios, carbon pricing, and the impact of CBAM.

Particular attention was given to combining macroeconomic, sectoral and technological perspectives. The discussions covered the potential gradual integration of new countries into carbon pricing mechanisms and the EU ETS after 2050, the interaction between trade and climate policy in the context of CBAM, and the importance of updated data and consistent scenario assumptions for a credible assessment of decarbonisation pathways.

In the energy area, analyses were presented on BECCS, DACCS, green hydrogen, synthetic fuels, and CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure in Poland. The discussion indicated that CDR technologies may play an important role after 2040, but their development will depend on technology costs, the availability of sustainable biomass, electricity demand, and the availability of CO₂ infrastructure.

In the transport section, the development of the TR3E model and ETS2 scenarios, as well as public transport support in Poland, were discussed. The results indicated that carbon pricing alone has a limited effect on mobility change and modal shift, while its combination with policies supporting public transport strengthens the reduction effect and increases the shift from passenger cars to buses and rail.

A separate block addressed the agricultural sector and carbon leakage risk. The presented analyses emphasised that climate policy assessment should take into account not only territorial emission reductions within the EU, but also possible relocation of production outside the Union and the associated global GHG effect. In this view, the objective of policy is not emission reduction in the EU through reduced EU production, but a real reduction in global emissions.

Topics presented by JRC

On the JRC side, applications and the latest development directions of models used for climate and energy policy analysis were discussed, including POTEnCIA, JRC-GEM-E3, POLES-JRC and FSCM. The role of the JRC-IDEES database and CETO scenarios was also presented as key elements supporting the preparation of analyses and impact assessments of climate policies at EU level.

Particular attention was given to the development of the POTEnCIA model, especially the redesign of the power sector module. The approach presented takes into account the growing share of variable renewable energy sources, the development of energy storage, demand-side response, the use of interconnections, and detailed modelling of power system operation using 8,760 hourly profiles. The approach to modelling investments in new generation capacity, energy storage and transmission infrastructure was also discussed.

The integration of results from energy models with the JRC-GEM-E3 model was also presented, used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy, including effects on GDP, employment and economic structure. Applications of the POLES-JRC model in GECO reports and global analyses on energy transition and climate ambition of third countries were also presented. In addition, the LEGENT project on transport technology costs and the latest updates of the JRC-IDEES database and the CETO scenario were discussed, as important data sources for decarbonisation analyses and long-term energy system development.

Key conclusions

A full assessment of climate policy impacts requires simultaneous consideration of both macroeconomic and sectoral perspectives (energy, agriculture, transport). Emission reductions within the EU alone do not guarantee global emission reductions; in sectors exposed to carbon leakage, a broader effect assessment is necessary. Data updates, consistency of scenario assumptions and model integration are key for a credible assessment of decarbonisation pathways up to 2050 and beyond 2050.

The workshop served as an important platform for knowledge exchange between JRC and CAKE/KOBiZE modelling teams. The meeting enabled an in-depth discussion on the development of modelling methods, integration of different analytical approaches, and future directions of cooperation in climate and energy policy analysis.

The discussions held during the workshop will constitute an important contribution to the further development of models used for analysing the energy transition and assessing the impacts of climate policy implementation in Poland and the European Union.