On 19 December 2024, Robert Jeszke, Deputy Director of IOSPIB and CEO of CAKE and KOBiZE, spoke as a panelist at the high-level debate “Competitiveness and… Climate Policy Outlook: Post-Baku and Post-US Election” organised by Business & Science Poland and Grupa Energa.
The meeting focused on the critical energy and climate challenges facing the new European Commission and other EU institutions, including the outcomes of COP29, EU climate diplomacy, the 2040 emissions reduction target and key mechanisms such as ETS2, the European Central Carbon Bank, as well as the role of the Polish Presidency in advancing these priorities.
The discussion, which was moderated by Dariusz Dybka of Business & Science Poland, featured (in addition to Robert Jeszke):
Robert Jeszke reflected on the importance of aligning with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, emphasising that the Baku framework ensures that emission reductions are internationally recognised, facilitating integration with systems such as the EU ETS. He pointed out that while the Baku Agreement is not perfect and requires further technical decisions, incorporating its principles into the ETS could create a more robust and inclusive carbon market. This integration would allow EU member states and regional partners to effectively reduce emissions while encouraging investment in green technologies. Robert Jeszke also highlighted that international offsets, including those from voluntary projects, could help reduce compliance costs and address emissions from hard-to-decarbonise sectors, making carbon markets more flexible and efficient. Morover, linking ETSs across regions increases market liquidity, leading to more competitive carbon pricing, technology transfer and lower overall compliance costs. He also referred to US climate policy. Donald Trump has announced his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Because it’s a big economy with big emissions and with a lot of opportunity for technology transfer to developing countries, global action may somehow be undermined or less effective, because other countries will have to take on those reduction targets that the United States has done so far.
You can read more about the above ideas in Robert Jeszke’s article.
On 17.12.2024, a conference within the LIFE VIIEW 2050 project was held at IOŚ-PIB headquarters to summarise the results of the 29th Climate Change Conference (COP29), which ended on 22 November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
One of the main elements of the meeting was the opportunity to present the activities of CAKE and the LIFE VIIEW 2050 project during COP29. This year, CAKE had the opportunity to participate in four side-events, two of which it co-organised during COP29. The meeting was also an excellent opportunity to discuss the experience of Polish experts in their work for the UNFCCC, especially taking into account the 30th anniversary of the Climate Convention coming into force this year. The meeting was honoured with the presence of Prof. Maciej Sadowski, Ph.D., who joined the participants at the special invitation of Robert Jeszke, Deputy Director of IOŚ-PIB, Head of KOBIZE and CAKE. Prof. Sadowski is an unquestionable international authority on climate change, a climatologist, and an expert who was involved in the creation and then the work of the Climate Convention from its inception. Professor Sadowski shared with the meeting participants not only his long-standing experience in international work focused on climate change, but also presented his reflections on the most current discussions, primarily related to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which met with great interest from the meeting participants. Professor Sadowski emphasised, among other things, that the two key areas of the Climate Convention – education and adaptation – are extremely important areas where work should be carried out on an equal footing with mitigation efforts, including global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Katarzyna Wrona, Director of the Department of Air Protection and Climate Negotiations at the Ministry of Climate and Environment, currently serving as Head of the Polish negotiating team for the UNFCCC, presented not only a summary of the entire COP29, but also outlined the challenges that negotiators will face in the coming months, also in the context of Poland assuming the Presidency of the Council of the EU at the beginning of 2025.
Members of the Polish Climate Convention negotiating team presented detailed results of the Baku negotiations in selected areas. In view of the financial dimension of the last COP in Baku, Edward Basiński and Patrycja Brudzińska (representatives of the Ministry of Finance) presented the results of COP29 on climate finance, including, above all, the new quantifiable financial target adopted at the Baku conference. Piotr Dombrowicki (KOBiZE IOŚ-PIB), on the other hand, presented to the meeting participants the latest results of the negotiators’ work on market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which are of key importance for global climate cooperation, and the arrangements adopted at COP29 are considered a major success based on many years of difficult work under the UNFCCC on this issue.
Afterwards, other members of the Polish negotiating team presented summaries of the work achieved during COP29 also in other areas, which are key topics currently being discussed at the UNFCCC.
In a summary of the speeches by members of the negotiating team, Anna Serzysko (KOBiZE IOŚ-PIB) summarised the activities of countries to date within their nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement (the so-called NDCs), while outlining the upcoming work, challenges and events that will take place in the arena of international climate negotiations in the coming months. Among the key issues highlighted by Anna Serzysko was the process of submitting Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) by the end of the current year by Parties to the Paris Agreement, as well as the presentation of new contributions to the climate agreement (NDCs) outlining countries’ actions beyond 2030, around which next year’s discussions at the Climate Conference, as well as at next year’s COP30, to be held in November 2025 in Belem, Brazil, will be dominated.
The meeting was also an opportunity to summarise the involvement of KOBiZE and the Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis (CAKE) in the events accompanying the 29th Climate Change Conference Mr Maciej Cygler (CAKE/KOBiZE) presented the activities of IOŚ-PIB within the LIFE VIIEW 2050 project during the events accompanying COP29 and emphasised the importance of scientific and expert cooperation in shaping climate policy. More information about the involvement of KOBiZE and the Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis (CAKE) in COP29 can be found here:
We also encourage you to read the latest LIFE VIIEW 2050 report , as well as monograph focused on the international climate negotiations :
VIIEW on EU ETS 2050: Linking EU ETS with other carbon pricing mechanisms (3.0 MiB, 279 hits)
The week from the 2nd till 5th December 2024, our CAKE/ KOBIZE/ IOŚ-PIB experts took part in of the TSI GreenREFORM project seminar in Copenhagen. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss strategies and tools related to climate policy modelling.
The project encompasses familiarisation with the GreenREFORM general equilibrium model, developed by the DREAM, Danish Research Institute for Economic Analysis and Modelling, through training and workshops. It also entails the application of this model in assessing the impacts of environmental and climate-energy policies and investment scenarios.
On the inaugural day of the workshop, participants were afforded the opportunity to gain insight into the climate policy perspective of the Finansministeriet – Danish Ministry of Finance, international cooperation and the fundamental tenets of the GreenREFORM project. Furthermore, the meeting presented practical applications of the model and discussed potential reforms to the industrial and agricultural emissions system.
The second day was dedicated to an in-depth examination of the scientific perspective and technical aspects of modelling. The difficulties inherent in modelling the energy market, agriculture and the cement and refining industry were examined. A portion of the workshop was dedicated to an examination of the technical foundations of the GreenREFORM model, with practical exercises conducted to illustrate its functionality.
On the third day, participants analysed i.e. energy and emissions data. The workshop concluded with practical exercises, including the modification of taxes and the analysis of top-down and bottom-up approaches to technology.
On the fourth day, presentations and wrap-up discussions took place. Marek Antosiewicz, expert from CAKE/ KOBIZE participated in the networking event that followed the TSI GreenReform modelling workshop. He presented our CAKE/KOBIZE/ IOŚ-PIB institutional setup, the models that we utilise in CAKE, and the projects in which we are currently engaged.
CAKE/KOBIZE attended in a seminar entitled “Impact of climate policy on the agricultural sector in Poland” which was held on December 2, 2024, organized by the Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IRWiR PAN).
CAKE experts on modeling of the agricultural sector, Dr. Adam Wąs and Dr. Paweł Kobus, CAKE/ KOBIZE, presented ways to achieve GHG emission reduction targets in agriculture resulting from the work carried out at KOBIZE under the LIFE Climate CAKE PL and LIFE VIIEW 2050 projects. The EPICA model, built at CAKE to study the effects of reducing GHG emissions in agriculture, was used to prepare the analyses. The analyses presented indicated the potential economic effects of achieving climate neutrality in Polish agriculture in the 2050 perspective.
The results of the analysis indicate that with current production technologies, achieving ambitious reduction targets in agriculture is difficult and leads to a significant reduction in production, and consequently to an increase in the price of agricultural products and an increase in imports of agricultural products. The use of instruments to reduce GHG emissions (CRCF) in agriculture facilitates the achievement of climate policy goals and reduces its negative impact on the income situation of farmers. The choice of methods for achieving the reduction target influences the direction and scale of change in the sector, a mixed option using quota-based emission reductions combined with subsidies for voluntary reductions by farmers appears to be the most favorable alternative. The use of this approach distributes the costs of reduction jointly and severally among all market participants (farmers, taxpayers, consumers).
On the 29th November 2024 CAKE and KOBIZE Experts Jakub Boratyński, Maciej Pyrka, Igor Tatarewicz, Michał Lewarski, Wojciech Rabiega, Adam Wąs and Paweł Kobus participated in the Carbon Pricing Seminar Series – “Exploring interactions between carbon markets and state support for greenhouse gas removals and green hydrogen in the EU context” for the distinguished colleagues from the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.
Maciej Pyrka, Head of the Strategy, Analysis and Auction Unit at KOBIZE/CAKE gave a brief overview of CAKE work, the models and projects in which the CAKE Team is currently engaged.
Jakub Boratyński from CAKE presented the results of the LIFEVIIEW2050 project, co-funded by the EU’s LIFE Programme. His presentation focused on the integration of carbon markets with state support for GHG abatement and green hydrogen in the EU and UK. Using advanced economic and sectoral modelling, he explored how policies such as carbonpricing and subsidies for technologies such as BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and green hydrogen affect the EU’s progress towards climateneutrality by 2050. Boratyński also presented CAKE’s analytical model tools used in the project (e.g. CGE, energy, agriculture, transport models). He explained their functionalities, such as analysing interactions between sectors, projecting emission reductions and assessing the economic impact of different climate policies.
Key findings & main conclusions:
We invite you to check our VIIEW on EU ETS 2050 analyses:
VIIEW on EU ETS 2050: Linking EU ETS with other carbon pricing mechanisms (3.0 MiB, 279 hits)
VIIEW on EU ETS 2050: Exploring synergies between the EU ETS and other EU climate policy measures - carbon removal, hydrogen, and sectoral transport policy (3.3 MiB, 535 hits)
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