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CAKE at BloombergNEF event about ETS2 future
On Wednesday, 17th September Robert Jeszke had the pleasure to participate in the Bloomberg seminar “Future-proofing EU ETS2: Balancing affordability, climate action and smart policy”. Other speakers were: Ewa Krukowska (moderator – BNEF) and Petr Holub (Czech Ministry of Environment), Beatriz Yordi (European Commission), Huan Chang (BloombergNEF) and Paul Kenny (EHPA).
The debate made one thing clear: ETS2 will be decisive for Europe’s climate ambition – but also highly vulnerable without stronger social safeguards.
The real question is not which model is right, but what these prices mean for households. In Poland, where 77% of EU household coal consumption occurs, the social impact will be severe. Even at €100/tCO₂, families face €250-300 extra per year for transport and €70-150 more for heating.
Poland already has around 12% of households in energy poverty (more than 1.5 million) and ETS2 could push this up by another 3-5 percentage points (400-600 thousand more families). Pensioners, rural residents, families in old houses with coal heating will be hit hardest. Rural areas also risk transport exclusion, as commuting costs rise with no affordable alternatives.
That is why, defending ETS2 means adjusting it and we need:
- pre-financing the Social Climate Fund through EU green bonds and unused ETS1 allowances, so support reaches households before carbon prices bite.
- A stronger MSR operational also after 2030, with better calibrated control price mechanisms to be more reactive to prevent speculative ETS2 price spikes and excessive volatility
- Broader social coverage & smart revenue use – support not only for the poorest, but also for the vulnerable lower-middle class. Revenues should be ring-fenced for building renovation, clean heating, district heating and public transport – delivering measurable benefits: lower bills, lower emissions, more jobs.
Robert Jeszke takeaway from the discussion: technical fixes alone – as also BNEF shows – will not secure public acceptance of ETS2. Without a credible social safety time and upfront investments in alternatives measures, carbon pricing risks being seen as an extra burden, not a transition tool.
