CAKE at ERSCT, 9.12.2025

CAKE at ERSCT, 9.12.2025

CAKE at ERSCT, 9.12.2025

On 9 December 2025, Marta Rosłaniec, our CAKE expert, had the pleasure of participating in the inaugural ERCST event, during which a report entitled ‘Future of emissions trading in the EU EU ETS – CBAM Package: A Strawman’ was presented.

The report presented by the ERCST (European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition) team is clear, well-structured and, importantly, contains not only a description of the problems but also practical solutions.

Some key points raised in the discussion:

• Administrative burdens remain a major challenge.
• Measuring embedded emissions is extremely difficult, even with benchmarks, and without proper verification there is a real risk of resource shifting.
• The latest CAKE analysis shows that revenues from the CBAM mechanism could reach €5-9 billion in 2030 and almost triple with a broader scope, but administrative burdens could also increase significantly.
• Carbon prices outside the EU vary widely and are often not in line with EU regulations; in our work, we model three different scenarios.
• CBAM is very price-sensitive, meaning that its revenues are not a stable source of income for the EU budget or exporters.
• CBAM also has an impact on electricity flows, for example when energy is transmitted through non-EU countries, as is the case in the Western Balkans.
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These challenges are directly related to CAKE’s work within the LIFE ENSPIRE project, which concerns the long-term integration of neighbouring countries into the EU ETS system.