“GO2’50. Climate. Society. Economy.” vol. 6

“GO2’50. Climate. Society. Economy.” vol. 6

“GO2’50. Climate. Society. Economy.” vol. 6

We are pleased to present the sixth issue of our publication “GO2’50. Climate. Society. Economy.” prepared by the National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE) and the Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses (CAKE).

  GO250. Climate. Society. Economy. Nr-6_2025.pdf (4.6 MiB, 30 hits)

In this issue, you will find the following articles:

• Analysis of the CO2 market in the EU ETS system: outlook and forecasts for 2026
• The intermediate 2040 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target in the amended  European Climate Law.
• The impact of the ETS 2 system on road transport in the initial years of implementation: a scenario analysis for Poland
• How did  greenhouse gas emissions in Poland changed since 1988?
• The social climate fund and its role in a just energy transition.
• CBAM 2.0. The future of the mechanism after the changes introduced by the Omnibus package
• Accreditation and verification issues in CBAM
• The role of financing mechanisms in the development of CDR projects in Europe and Poland in the context of  CRCF framework
• The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) is gaining momentum
• LIFE ENSPIRE: “Climate integration: opportunities and limitations for candidate countries (the Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey) in adapting to EU policy.”
• Challenges of a Just Energy Transition based on the example of Central Asia.

The European Union’s climate policy is currently at a turning point, though this primarily concerns its implementation, while its main objectives and directions remain in place.

To achieve the ambitious goals set out in the Paris Agreement, the European Union is continually expanding and refining its range of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The result is a complex ecosystem of regulations, market mechanisms and financial instrumentsthat will continue to grow considerably over the next few decades. Reform of the EU ETS,the implementation of the CBAM mechanism, setting a new EU reduction target for 2040and preparations for the launch of ETS2 are not just regulatory measures, but are also havinga tangible impact on markets, businesses and households.

In this issue of GO2’50, the authors continue their efforts to explain, explore and update key elements of EU climate policy from Poland’s perspective, providing an overview of the current situation and demonstrating how the various EU climate policy components are beginning to interlock. This all means that climate policy remains one of the key areas that will determine Europe’s future development model.

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) remains the fundamental instrument of EU climate policy and has provided a carbon price signal for emissions reductions in energy-intensive sectors for nearly two decades. This publication demonstrates that we are entering a new phase in the system’s operation. With the declining supply of allowances, the expansion of the system to additional sectors, and the growing role of financial investors, the EUA market is becoming increasingly sensitive to regulatory and political decisions. Our publication shows that the coming years may bring significant changes in the market balance of CO2 emission allowances due to reduced supply, the extension of the system to new sectors, and regulatory developments.

At the same time, the European Union is developing instruments aimed at protecting industrial competitiveness and preventing carbon leakage beyond its borders. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), although still at the implementation and legislative adjustment stage, has become one of the most widely discussed elements of the climate package. The publication outlines both its general assumptions and the technical aspects of its functioning, including the role of emissions verifiers and the effects of the latest regulatory simplifications.

The Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) remains the cornerstone of the EU’s climate policy. For two decades, it has provided a price signal for emissions reductions in energy-intensive sectors. This publication shows that a new phase in the EU ETS’s operation is beginning. Given the decreasing supply of allowances, the system’s expansion to additional sectors, and the growing involvementof financial investors, the ETS market is becoming more sensitive to regulatory and political decisions. An analysis of fundamental, regulatory and technical factors reveals why the price of CO2 emissions no longer merely reflects current economic conditions, but also long-term expectations regarding the energy transition. This publication shows that significant changes to the market balance of EUAs may be expected in the coming years, resulting from supply constraints, the extension of the system to new sectors and regulatory changes.

At the same time, the European Union is developing measures designed to safeguard industrial competitiveness and prevent carbon leakage beyond its borders. Although still in the process of implementation and legislative refinement, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is becoming one of the most hotly debated elements of the climate package. Our publication outlines its general principles and technical operation, including the role of emissions verifiers and the impact of recent regulatory simplifications

We also address the fundamental debate on the EU’s long-term climate targets in this issue, including the interim emissions reduction target for 2040. The process of setting this target has highlighted tensions between climate ambition and concerns about the social and economic costs of the transition. Our analyses show that how efforts are divided between the ETS and non-ETS sectors, and how offset credits are used, may be crucial to achieving ambitious targets nationally. Likewise, the growing importance of carbon capture and removal technologies in this context is worth highlighting. The EU’s Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) creates new opportunities for Poland, particularly with regard to the development of regenerative agriculture and the implementation of innovative CDR technologies in industry and the energy sector. 

The social dimension of the transition remains a sensitive matter, in particular the impact of introducing the ETS2 system to cover the buildings and road transport sectors. Clearly, this will affect the cost of living in Poland, a topic that we have been writing about and debating for some time. The analyses presented in this issue show that, while the cost increases may be moderate in scale, they are unevenly dispersed. 

The discourse in this edition is enriched by a more expansive global viewpoint, encompassing the international emissions crediting mechanisms that have emerged from the Paris Agreement and the preparations of EU candidate countries to implement EU climate policy. Unsurprisingly, European regulations are having an increasingly strong impact beyond the Union’s borders, setting standards and the pace of change for its partners.

We hope that the collected texts will encourage readers to view climate policy as more than just a set of regulations, but as an ongoing process that requires a balance
between ambition, efficiency, and social justice, and which is already influencing the conditions for the development of the Polish economy in the coming decades.

We invite you to read this issue!