NEW ANALYSIS: POLAND NET-ZERO 2050

We are pleased to present the latest publication by the Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis (CAKE) entitled “Poland net-zero 2050: The roadmap toward achievement of the EU climate policy goals in Poland by 2050“.

„Polska net-zero 2050: Mapa drogowa osiągnięcia wspólnotowych celów polityki klimatycznej dla Polski do 2050 r.”– full analysis in polish language

“Poland net-zero 2050. The roadmap toward achievement of the EU climate policy goals in Poland by 2050. Summary.“– summary in english language

In this report, we analysed options of transition towards climate neutral economy in Poland in accordance with the climate policy goals declared in the European Green Deal. We attempted to assess necessary transformation of all sectors of the economy paying particular attention to energy, transport and agriculture.

The aim of this report is to support the process of defining short and long-term actions to build a climate-neutral Polish economy, to estimate barriers and conditions, and in particular to support the preparation of a national low-emission strategy until 2050, and to support individual sectors of the economy in building their own sectoral voluntary action plans to achieve the EU the goal of climate neutrality by 2050.

Key Messages:

Reduction of fossil fuels and adoption of RES is not sufficient to achieve climate neutrality targets in EU and PL by 2050. These measures will need to be supplemented with, among other things, large scale adoption of BECCS, CCS and CCU technologies, electrification of industry, adoption of hydrogen technologies, and diffusion of electromobility and reduction of livestock production in agriculture.
Most of emission reduction in Poland takes place in the energy sector, but the role of this sector in the overall decarbonisation effort decreases over time. The sector is responsible for 80% of total emission reduction by 2030 (relative to 2015) and 55% of the reduction by 2050.
The transformation of the energy sector in Poland involves significant investment costs. In the NEU scenario, the total expenditure in the energy sector in the period 2021-2050 will be at the level of approx. EUR 295 billion (excluding expenditures related to the expansion and modernisation of the transmission and distribution network or the modernisation of the existing units). These expenditures are almost 60% higher than in the BAU scenario (approx. EUR 185 billion).
The costs of increasing climate ambitions are reflected in the difference in household consumption between scenarios. In the NEU scenario, the decrease in consumption for Poland relative to BAU is approximately USD 249 billion’14 (/ EUR 188 billion’14) in the period 2021-2050. Consumption drops are caused by declines in competitiveness of the economy and increased investment needs, for instance, in the energy sector.
Low-carbon transition requires development of technologies of electric and hydrogen vehicle. In 2030 21% of freight will use means of transport based on electricity or hydrogen. In 2050, this share will reach the level of approx. 65% of total freight. The transition will require investment in infrastructure: charging stations, hydrogen fuelling stations and traction network grid for lorries.
The results of the analysis indicate that the introduction of significant GHG emission reductions in the agriculture sector cannot be fully compensated by a reduction in unit emissions and leads to a reduction in the volume of agricultural production, especially livestock production.

The transition to low-carbon, and eventually climate neutral economy will require coordinated actions in a number of sectors. There is a need to design a strategy that could guide changes in the sectors and to prepare financial frames that would allow to provide sufficient access to capital for the required investment. EU decarbonisation targets are ambitious, but feasible if low-carbon technological progress is fast enough and if there is a sufficient access to financial resources.

Analysis in polish language:

Polska net-zero 2050: Mapa drogowa osiągnięcia wspólnotowych celów polityki klimatycznej dla Polski do 2050 r. (7.5 MiB, 4,271 hits)