NEW SECTORAL ANALYSES: net-zero 2050 in energy, transport and agriculture
We are pleased to present the latest three CAKE/KOBiZE publications on: energy transition, the role of public transport and the effects of implementing selected instruments mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture in Poland. These analyses respond to the current challenges which may occur as a result of the implementation of EU climate policy objectives declared in the European Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package presented by the European Commission and the proposed solutions and regulations.
The report shows the directions of energy transformation in energy sector in Poland and EU. The report analyses several scenarios that take into account the challenges of the energy transformation and current fuel crisis:
- the baseline scenario (BASE) assuming only 60% emission reduction in the EU in 2050 vs. 1990,
- the neutrality scenario (NEU) – assuming the achievement of climate neutrality at the EU level in 2050,
- neutrality scenario with high fossil fuel prices (NEU_HPRICE) – simulating the impact of increased fuel prices on the level of electricity demand and emission costs,
- neutrality scenario with a lower potential of offshore wind farms (NEU_LWIND) – investigating the sensitivity of the results on the scale of RES development in the EU, including the possibility of generating zero-emission electricity and green hydrogen. The energy transformation will require a significant increase in the demand for electricity, an increase in the share of RES in the energy mix, cooperation of energy consumers in balancing the power system (DSR, charging electric cars), significant investments in technologies for balancing unstable RES (electrolysers, energy storages).
In this report we analysed the possible directions of change in the transport sector, with special focus on the role of public transport. We simulated the effects of various scenarios which highlight the challenges that Poland faces in its effort to reduce emission targets in line with EU climate policy.
- Neutrality scenario (NEU), in which we assume achieving the goals of the Fit for 55 package by 2030. In the long term we assume a 90% reduction of emissions with respect to 1990 and, when taking into account land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), an overall net-zero emissions level. Furthermore, we assume that the transport sector is covered by the BRT ETS.
- In the alternative neutrality scenarios we introduce a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars from 2035 and promoting public transport by lowering its cost for users.
We analysed the impact of introducing these measures on the transport sector, in particular on the shifts in the structure of the fleet of both individual and public vehicles, the degree of utilisation of zero-emission vehicles and the increase in demand for electricity and hydrogen.
The report analyses the potential for GHG emission reductions in the agricultural sector in Poland in the 2050 perspective under two scenarios:
- NEU (assuming the EU achieves climate neutrality based on current production activities and techniques in agriculture),
- NEU+ (assessing the effects of additional GHG mitigation instruments, including: afforestation of agricultural land, raising the level of groundwater on utilised organic soils, and use of biogas plants to reduce emissions from manure management).
Achievement of climate neutrality targets under the given scenarios was assessed under four policy options, namely:
- implementation of GHG emission payments,
- implementation of a limit on GHG emissions,
- subsidisation of emissions reductions by farmers,
- a combination of limit on emissions and subsidies to farmers.
The effects of the implementation of these solutions on the agricultural sector were assessed, including: changes in the area of agricultural land and livestock population, changes in the volume and productivity of agricultural production, prices of agricultural products and changes in farm income, as well as the necessary level of budget expenditures for the implementation of the analysed policy options.Back