CAKE at PIK workshop on modelling CO2 prices to 2030 & beyond
On November 30, our experts, project coordinator – Robert Jeszke and modeling expert – Maciej Pyrka, took part in workshops organized by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Ecologic Institute entitled “The EU-ETS price through 2030 and beyond: A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions”. The recording of the webinar can be found at this link.
With the Fit-for-55 package about to be put into law, and the RePowerEU plan adopted in response to the energy crisis, EU climate and energy is undergoing the most profound change in years, getting the EU on track to a post-fossil energy system. In a three-day series of events, partners from the Ariadne research project presented key insights from their work that is relevant for the further development of EU climate and energy policy, and discussed these with representatives from political institutions, academia, civil society and business. The events served to share research insights, to discuss and validate findings and their relevance for EU policy process, and to gather inputs for further research. The Ariadne project is a collaborative effort by more than 25 German research institutions that investigates strategies and instruments to advance the energy transition and to achieve climate goals in an efficient and socially balanced way. Ecologic Institute supports the linkage of research with the EU climate and energy discussion.
In this three-session workshop, participants discussed the types of models, implementation details as well as core assumptions employed in the analysis of ETS prices targeted to inform the policy debate. More specifically, the workshop demonstrated the diversity of approaches, discussed their pros and cons, and identified major sensitivities and arising developments affecting the price of carbon through the end of this decade and beyond. While the first two sessions of the workshop took place as a closed-door discussion between academic modellers, carbon market analysts and invited guests, the third session had the form of a public webinar.
Robert Jeszke said that the main EUA price drivers till 2030 would be:
- more strict LRF,
- extention to 24% intake rate in MSR,
- phasing out of free allowances in #CBAM sectors, Ilong-term,
- investors who can buy and hold EUA’s for many years.