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CAKE’s contribution to the analysis of the energy transition in the EU (ECEMF)
Within the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum (ECEMF) project, we had the opportunity to contribute to the analysis entitled ‘Transformations of the energy supply sector towards the EU’s net-zero goal’, focused on the long-term transformation of the European Union’s energy sector.
The article is available at: LINK
The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of constraints on the availability of key low-carbon technologies on the decarbonisation pathways of the European energy system. The analysis was based on the results of scenarios prepared using five European energy supply models: MEESA (CAKE model), LIMES, ENERTILE, ACSG and OSeMBE. The analysis covers the years 2030 and 2050.
In particular, the consequences of limitations in the development of technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear energy, bioenergy, photovoltaics and wind energy were assessed. The analysis took into account their impact on the structure of the electricity generation mix, the scale of greenhouse gas emission reductions, investment needs and the total costs of operating the electricity system.
The results obtained within the model ensemble clearly indicate that uncontrollable renewable energy sources – in particular wind and solar energy – play a key role in achieving deep decarbonisation of the EU energy sector. At the same time, scenarios assuming the unavailability of CCS technology lead to higher system emissions and require significantly greater investment in renewable energy sources and storage, which translates into higher transformation costs.
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