CAKE on the “CBAM 2026. Consequences for Industry and Trade” conference, 25.03.2026

CAKE on the “CBAM 2026. Consequences for Industry and Trade” conference, 25.03.2026

CAKE on the “CBAM 2026. Consequences for Industry and Trade” conference, 25.03.2026

On 25 March 2026, Maciej Pyrka, Head of the Strategy, Analysis and Auctions Team at KOBiZE (CAKE/IOŚ-PIB), took part in a conference entitled “CBAM 2026. Consequences for Industry and Trade”, organised by EY and the Warsaw School of Economics. The panel also included: Piotr Sikorski (President of the Polish Union of Steel Distributors and Processors), Dr Krzysztof Księżopolski (WSE), Paulina Wojtal (WSE), Wojciech Zalewski (EY) and Grzegorz Krechowiecki (SPC), whilst the discussion was moderated by Dorota Pokrop (EY).

During his presentation, Maciej Pyrka outlined the basic principles of the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), which aims to equalise CO₂ emission costs between EU and non-EU producers, thereby limiting carbon leakage (the relocation of production) and creating incentives for decarbonisation in third countries.

A key element of the presentation was a discussion of the CBAM’s impact on the economy and competitiveness. It was emphasised that whilst the mechanism’s macroeconomic impact remains limited, its effect on selected sectors of the economy or individual companies could be significant. In particular, it was noted that energy-intensive sectors may benefit from reduced competition from non-EU producers, resulting from the rise in prices of imported products covered by the CBAM. Conversely, manufacturing sectors may face increased production costs if they use such products

Maciej Pyrka also addressed the current discussions regarding the future of the CBAM, drawing attention to the planned review of the mechanism, which may result in its extension to further sectors of the economy, as well as to proposals for changes to the decision on the EU’s own resources. According to these proposals, 75% of CBAM revenues would go to the EU budget, whilst 25% would go to national budgets and could serve as a source of funding for the Temporary Decarbonisation Fund.

The highlight of the presentation was the presentation of the results of analyses carried out by CAKE/KOBiZE/IOŚ-PIB and the presentation of a tool developed as part of the LIFE ENSPIRE project – the CBAM Explorer. This tool enables scenario analyses to be carried out based on various assumptions regarding emission allowance prices, the carbon intensity of products and market reactions to price changes. The CBAM Explorer allows the scale of potential revenues and costs associated with the operation of the mechanism to be determined, broken down by Member State and economic sector for the years 2026–2027.

• CBAM Explorer is available here: https://climatecake.ios.edu.pl/cbam_explorer/