On May 12, 2020 r. a webinar took place on “European Green Deal 2050 – challenges of transformation” organized by IOŚ-PIB/KOBiZE as a part of LIFE Climate CAKE PL project in partnership with the Permanent Representation of the Republic of Poland to the EU. In a 1.5 hour meeting around 200 participants took part.
The purpose of the organized webinar was to exchange views on the challenges associated with the transformation towards climate neutrality and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the implementation of the European Union’s ambitious climate and energy policy. Among the distinguished guests at our webinar were Andrzej Sadoś, The Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the EU and Adam Guibourge-Czetwertyński, Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Climate. The meeting was also attended by Tom van Ierland from DG CLIMA from the European Commission and Georg Zachmann representative of the Bruegel think tank, Robert Jeszke, KOBiZE, Coordinator of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL and Maciej Pyrka, KOBiZE, LIFE Climate CAKE PL CGE model expert .
The Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the EU, Mr. Andrzej Sadoś emphasized in his opening remarks that the challenges facing Poland and the European Union are unprecedented. They will require not only significant investments, but also far-reaching actions with serious consequences on behalf of a wide range of sectors. The Ambassador referred to the current economic and social situation caused by the COVID-19 crisis while stressing that the scale of the challenges means that the challenge of transformation will be even more difficult than anticipated. Already before the pandemic, the costs of transformation were particularly high for countries such as Poland, and due to the pandemic they are expected to increase even further. Regardless of the level of socio-economic development or the structure of the energy mix, all Member States are faced with new challenges. Strengthening cooperation and building universal tools to stimulate post-crisis reconstruction has a chance to help solve some of the problems.
The Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Climate, Mr. Adam Guibourge-Czetwertyński, underlined the need for an ambitious and solid recovery plan ensuring the sustainable and equitable development of our continent without burdening the poorest and most vulnerable citizens and regions, and that transformation should lead to a stronger, greener, crisis-proof and united EU.
Mr. Tom van Ierland, DG CLIMA – European Commission, made it clear that raising targets by 2030 despite the current crisis caused by COVID-19 is still a priority for the EC, and the publication of the results of the impact assessment is planned for September this year. The EC representative emphasized that it will be a comprehensive analysis that will assess the possibility of extending the ETS system to the transport and construction sectors. It will also analyze the potential of all EU sectors and policies identified within the European Green Deal (e.g. industrial policy, circular economy, biodiversity, farm to fork) to achieve its goals. The analysis will also cover the role of forests and land use in absorbing emissions. The comprehensive assessment will also consider the impact of COVID-19 and take into account the social aspect, including effects on labour market and employment.
Mr. Georg Zachmann, representative of the Bruegel, drew the attention to the mechanism for adjusting prices at the borders taking into account CO2 emissions, the Energy Tax Directive or the manner of getting revenues to budgets from the auction of emission allowances.
Mr. Maciej Pyrka, KOBiZE, LIFE Climate CAKE PL CGE model expert, presented the results of the analyzes carried out in as part of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project. In his findings he stressed that implementation of the new greenhouse gas emission reduction targets proposed in the European Green Deal and Climate Law will result in a reduction in the supply of emission allowances in the EU ETS and also trigger a sharpening of current national reduction policies in the non-ETS sectors. The results of the analyzes carried out in as part of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project suggest that the proposed increase in the reduction target for 2030 may result in a sig
nificant increase in prices in the EU ETS in an extreme case up to 76 EUR / ton in 2030. The high price of allowances can generate high costs for industry and lead to carbon leakage (i.e. relocation of production and investment outside the EU). On the other hand, the proposed emission reduction path by 2050 will mean the necessity to reduce practically to zero emissions from the power generation sector and from some industrial sectors in the Member States. The high price of allowances can generate high costs for industry and lead to carbon leakage (i.e. relocation of production and investment outside the EU). On the other hand, the proposed emission reduction path by 2050 will mean the necessity to reduce practically to zero emissions from the power generation sector and from some industrial sectors in the Member States. Referring to the current situation related to the crisis caused by COVID-19, it is necessary to take into account its effects in assessing the impact of the newly proposed regulations and strategies on Member States, which is difficult because we do not yet have full information about the state of the economy after the crisis.
Mr. Robert Jeszke, KOBiZE, Coordinator LIFE Climate CAKE PL project underlined that challenges will also be faced by most sectors of classified as non-ETS. First of all, there will be significant changes affecting secors such as: transport, building and agricultural. In his speech he emphasized that in terms of distribution of emission reductions, we should treat EU ETS sectors and non-ETS sectors in such a way that it would not lead to internal carbon leakage, i.e. leakeage from the EU ETS to the non-ETS area, where such an an example can be seen where high prices of EUA allowances cause some heat consumers to disconnect from heating networks and start to use more individual emission sources (e.g. coal boilers). In addition he highlighted the growing emissions in the transport sector and stressed the need to take this problem into account in assessing the impact of the new climate policy for 2030.
The webinar was moderated by Mrs. Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, responsible for the Power Engineering project within the Energy Forum.
Presenatation:
CAKE_webinar_European_Green_Deal_12-05-2020.pdf (1.3 MiB, 894 hits)
More information on the website: https://www.gov.pl/web/eu/european-green-deal-2050—challenges-of-transformation—webinar
We would like to invite you to the LIFE Climate CAKE PL & Permanent Representation of Poland to the EU webinar on European Green Deal 2050 – Challenges of transformation, which will take place on May 12, 2020 (Tuesday) at 11.00-12.30.
At the meeting, we plan to present to an EU audience the results of analyses obtained under the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project, in particular in the context of the 2050 energy mix and new analyses on impact on emission reduction targets.
Registration untill 12h00 on the 11th May 2020:
PASSWORD: CLIMATE
* link to the webinar will be sent to the registered attendees a day before the event
We are pleased to present the results of our new analysis prepared as part of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project entitled “The European Green Deal impact on the GHG’s emission reduction target for 2030 and on the EUA prices. Summary” The full version of the publication is in Polish and the summary is in English.
CAKE_Zmiana-celów-redukcyjnych-i-cen-uprawnień-do-emisji-wynikająca-z-komunikatu-Europejski-Zielony-Ład.pdf (1.3 MiB, 3,095 hits)
CAKE_The-European-Green-Deal-impact-on-the-reduction-target-for-2030-and-on-the-EUA-prices.-Summary.pdf (1.0 MiB, 2,383 hits)
The above analysis is of particular importance in the context of the need to achieve the 2050 climate neutrality objective and the challenges of a just transition.
The EC’s proposals to tighten climate and energy policy under the European Green Deal and the new European Climate Law project announced today will have a great impact on the European industry and energy sectors, which will bear the very high costs of this transformation. This will particularly affect Poland, whose energy is based on fossil fuels.
In this report has been analysed how increasing the reduction target to 50% and 55% from the current 40% in 2030 may change the reduction of emissions. This concerned sectors covered by the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and sectors that are outside this system, i.e. in the non-ETS. It was also examined how new reduction targets for 2030 affect the price of EUA (European Union Allowances).
Below are the most important conclusions from the analysis:
EU ETS
Non-ETS
On the 7 of February 2020 r. fourth Steering Committee and Working Group meeting of LIFE Climate CAKE PL project was held at KOBiZE’s office.
Representatives of public governmental administration dealing with the climate and energy policy issues participated in the meeting (Ministry of: Foreign Affairs, Infrastructure, Agriculture and Rural Development, State Assets.
At the beginning, information on the progress of work on the project, i.e. completed and planned activities were presented – i.e. works on model tools, meetings, topics of analyzes, and future planned projects.
Next, the assumptions and analytical capabilities of the EPICA agricultural sector model were presented – i.e. model scope, analytical scenarios, preliminary modeling results and subsequent planned tasks. The agricultural model EPICA (Evaluation of Policy Impacts – Climate and Agriculture), carried out as part of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project, aims to examine the scale of changes in the agricultural sector resulting from the implementation of climate policy instruments. The model covers Poland and analyzes 17 plant and 6 animal activities. Preliminary results of the analysis based on the EPICA model show that assuming the use of currently used production technologies, achieving ambitious reduction goals in agriculture is difficult. Forcing the reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture leads to a decrease in the production volume, which would probably lead to an increase in prices of agricultural products. A decrease in production would hit the production of beef cattle, milk or maize for grain and silage the most.
Further in the meeting the analysis on the impact of increasing emission reduction targets in the EU was presented. The analysis indicates the impact it would have on changes in the supply and prices of allowances in the EU ETS system and on changes in emission limits for non-ETS sectors, as well as on changes in emission allowance prices (EUA) for EU ETS sectors. Preliminary results of the analysis show that increasing EU emission reduction targets will significantly increase the targets in the EU ETS, non-ETS and increase the prices of EUA allowances.
At the meeting also the preliminary results of the analysis of the costs of transformation from the perspective of employees in the mining sector, based on the general equilibrium model d-PLACE was presented. The presentations were followed by a discussion on the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project, the results presented and further possible cooperation with the ministries participating in the work of the Steering Committee.
The IOŚ-PIB/KOBiZE/ CAKE had the opportunity to actively participate in the global climate event of the COP 25 Conference, the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, which took place in Madrid this year. The LIFE Climate CAKE PL team was a co-organizer of two events called side events organized in the European Union Pavilion on December 3, 2019 and in the Paris Committee for Capacity Building (PCCB Hub) on December 6, 2019. We invite you to read the report.
On December 3, 2020, a conference on fair transformation needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 titled: „ Challenges and Opportunities of achieving “net zero emissions“. How to manage the just and efficient transition?” was held at the COP25 EU pavilion. The conference was co-organized by CAKE / KOBiZE, Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics and CAN Europe.
The event was attended by many experts in the field of energy and climate policy, economic modeling, as well as in mitigation activities. During the event it was discussed what structural changes in the economy will beneeded to achieve significantgreenhouse gas emission reductions. The challenges and threats that may arise as a consequence of decarbonisation and the necessary transformation of the economy d were also indicated.
In the first part of the meeting LIFE Climate CAKE PL experts presented the results of analyzes made on the d-PLACE model, showing the impact that climate protection measures have on changes in competitiveness of sectors, emissions and on the labor market. Possible threats related to the carbon leakage phenomena were pointed out.
LIFE Climate CAKE PL experts also discussed the most important risks associated with the low-carbon transformation from the point of view of the labor market. A problem related to mining regions in Poland weredescribed, also statistical data were presented on the number of miners, their education and age structures. Information and explanation on the effects of the low-carbon transformation that may be associated with a financial loss for those currently employed in mining was also provided.
In the second part of the event there was a panel discussion giving a floor to the leading researchers and stakeholders in the field.
Among the panelist were:
Robert Jeszke, LIFE Climate CAKE PL Project Coordinator, Head of Strategy, Analysis and Auction Unit, KOBiZE/IOŚ-PIB
Rebecca Byrnes, Policy Analyst – Grantham Research – Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics (LSE)
Andrzej Błachowicz, Climate Strategies & Secretariat of the EC Platform for Coal Regions in Transition
Lech Sekyra, President of the Board, PGE Ekoserwis Sp. z.o.o
Estathios Peteves, Head of Knowledge for Energy Union in the Energy, Transport and Climate Directorate, Joint Research Centre, European Commission
Joanna Flisowska, Senior Coal Policy Coordinator, CAN
Robert Jeszke described costs of transition in carbon-intensive economies, including the risk of carbon leakage, i.e. outflow of carbon-intensive industry to regions of the world with less stringent climate policy. He also noticed an important different between attitudes towards the transition in Western Europe and new members of EU. Poland and other countries in the region were catching-up their western neighbours since 1990 and today the society might be tired and less willing to undertake another transition then countries in West.
Rebecca Byrnes noted potential challenges for workers in carbon-intensive industries and pointed at new opportunities for those workers in other sectors. She also noted that the challenges could differ between areas and highlighted the role of collaboration between different levels of government.
Andrzej Błachowicz noticed a crucial role of collaboration between researchers and other stakeholders. Although some stakeholders still seem to ignore the problem, those who are on the ground understand the need to prepare alternative scenarios of growth for regions that currently depend on coal.
Lech Sekyra discussed technologies which could be applied to reutilize ashes from combustion of fossil fuels. This technique allows to reduce usage of natural raw miners and hence has a positive effect on environment. He underlined that it can be seen as an example of application of circular economy.
Joanna Flisowska noted that the retirement age for workers is rather low: after 55 years. She also pointed out at the substantial drop in number of miners in last decade, which was primarily driven by low profitability of the sector. Moreover, the costs of extracting coal are increasing since access to those resources becomes more difficult. She also highlighted social costs of mining: damage of houses and air pollution.
Estathios Peteves reminded that the coal transition affects not only mining regions but also regions with carbon-intensive industries. He also stressed that the low-carbon transition must go hand-in-hand with industrial transition and new social contract for workers. Finally, he observed that miners possess skills such as sense of engineering, sense of risk, knowledge of tools, that could be fitting into other sectors, such as construction sector.
The Paris Committee on Capacity-building (PCCB), created in 2015 and acknowledged by the UNFCCC, hosted the 2nd Capacity-building Hub at the COP25 in Madrid, providing the space for meetings to share the knowledge, experience and discuss questions concerning building the capacity for more efficient climate change mitigation and adaptation. December 6 was a Knowledge to Action Day, designed to bridge capacity-building gaps in the production and translation of relevant knowledge into climate action and strengthen the engagement of universities and research institutions in building capacity for climate policy development and implementation. The session Knowledge to Action: Lessons learned from practice was organized by the Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis (CAKE/KOBiZE) together with partners from World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe).
Session began with the presentation on LIFE Climate PL CAKE project, implemented by CAKE/KOBiZE.
Maciej Cygler, the project team expert, introduced the project concept and emphasized the problem of adequate knowledge gaps as well as its insufficient transfer to the decision-making level. Although experts create highly advanced models and other analytical tools, they not necessarily meet the needs of stakeholders’ involved in the climate policy development and implementation. Moreover, their practical application in the decision-making is hindered by insufficient knowledge of their operation and – most importantly – effective communication of modelling results to decision makers. The presentation explained how the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project responds to the above challenges by creating a comprehensive and system solution, that includes stakeholders into the knowledge generation process. The importance of translating advanced knowledge into useful information was also emphasized.
Later in the session, Jyoti Kirit Parikh, Director of Integrated Research and Development (IRADe) and Probal Pratap Ghosh, Chief Modeler at IRADe shared their experiences. Participants had the opportunity to learn about the effects of projects implemented by IRADe concerning both inspiring and the support to activities in cities of India (Mobilizing Mitigation / Adaptation Action at Sub National Level), also use of knowledge in creating the path to achieve the goals set in NDC.
Agnes Kijazi, Director of the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency and Vice President of WMO explained how intensively the demand for knowledge is growing, especially that which is necessary to support the decision-making process in the institutional, infrastructural and procedural context as well as in relation to human resources. She presented examples of activities implemented in Tanzania. The presentation series ended with Carlos Fuller, Coordinator at Caribbean Climate Change Community (CCCC). He presented examples of various activities at national and local level, including adaptation efforts undertaken in the countries of the Caribbean region.
In the second part of the meeting participants could attend the discussion panel where Robert Jeszke, Head of the Strategy, Analysis and Auction Unite at KOBiZE, LIFE Climate CAKE PL Project Coordinator and Kirit Shantilal Parikh, President of IRADe joined the above-mentioned speakers.
The panel discussion extended the content presented before. Panellists agreed that although the science world provides a lot of diverse and advanced knowledge, decision-makers and societies still emphasize its shortages and often an inadequacy in the context of the decision-making needs. Another important challenge is the communication gap, which appears as an insufficient translation of knowledge into information useful for decision-making, including both the policy design and measures. Panellists underlined also the threat associated with the availability of unreliable or even false knowledge.
Robert Jeszke noticed that in today’s world we sometimes experience even an overload of information, however its significant part is of low quality and is not built on reliable scientific evidence. As a result, knowledge recipients are confused, they can use the wrong information and, as a consequence, make wrong decisions. LIFE Climate CAKE PL responds to this challenge.
The session was concluded by Gaston Meskenes, The New Humanism Project. He emphasized the importance of the entire series of meetings in the PCCB Capacity-building Hub, facilitating the exchange of experiences and discussions involving a wide spectrum of actors. Many participants agreed that such debates and exchange of experience are form of research themselves. One of the most important conclusions stated that the world of science, experts and analysts should realize that the knowledge generated should be more policy relevant and respond to the needs.
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